The Wall Street Fox

The past few weeks have been bright for American Apparel and its share price. Shares rose more than 30% in a matter of a few short trading days, hitting an intraday high of $0.82 and then settling in the low $0.70s before dropping 5% mid trading today to $0.64 per share. The company is expanding its global reach, with its recently acquired OAK brand opening up shop in Japan, and the company's recent delistment notice from the NYSE was thrown out.

This company has risk written all over it. Earnings are coming out in two weeks, and they will  not be pretty. Improvements I hope, but given the fact that the company just completed a stock offering to avoid bankruptcy, the numbers will probably reflect that and give a wake up call to some of the weak holders in this stock. Then again, expectations are so low, any surprise upside could equate to a large move in the stock price.

The stock is still clearly in a downtrend, and MACD is priming to turn bearish, so I do see potential for a drop to the $0.60 level (maybe $0.59) before another move up. APP needs to hold its 50 day MA at $0.64 or else $0.60 is next. I remain bullish long term on APP, but am acknowledging the fact that shares are taking a breather (and rightfully so). Volume is minimal. If APP bounces off of its 50 day, it may be a solid entry point, if you can stomach the risk!

Vaporin (VAPO) is a deadbeat penny stock that has been nearly cut in half in value over the past few weeks. The stock used to be Valor Gold, of which Frost had a stake in, and now the company announced James J. Martin as CFO, who previous worked at Non Invasive Medical System (NIMU), another Phillip Frost holding.

Also keep in mind that Vaporin is headquartered in Florida, as is Phillip Frost and many of his businesses.

This company is risky, and volatile, and it looks like a scam. I e-mailed the company weeks ago asking about their products and have yet to receive a response, but that doesn't mean it won't generate returns. The company said they are engaging in a "viral" marketing campaign and I wouldn't be surprised if this stock starts to get pumped/hyped, which could lead to a quick buck.

The company sells e-cigs, vaporizers, and e-hookahs. Almost all companies associated with E-Cigs have taken off, which is probably what spurred the previous Valor Gold to ditch the gold mining business and purchase privately held Vaporin based in Florida.

The company has had a steady news flow so keep this one on watch because if it picks up, and if word gets out that Phillip Frost and his team is indeed invested in Vaporin, we may see this one jump higher.

Keep in mind the company is looking to conduct a reverse split in the imminent future.


Currently I have no position but it is on my watch list.

Nokia had its power hitters lined up early this morning. The company released a series of positive news points, which helped cover up the overall muted earnings report.

• A $0.15 dividend will be reinstated, and will pay for 2013 as well as 2014. The record date is June 18th, ex dividend date is June 23rd, and payment is in July (for 2013 dividend). 
• A special dividend of $0.36 will also be distributed to shareholders.
• The company will buy back ~$1.73 billion in shares over the next two years.
• The company will pay $2.77 billion in debt by 2016, reducing costs by more than $130 million per year.
• The company is seeking to be upgraded to an investment grade credit rating.

All in all some solid capital restructuring for the company, which helped boost shares more than 8% to $7.66 in pre-market trading. That rally has since faded however, with the stock currently trading at $7.20, up a mere 2.5%.

For all the positive fundamental news, what went wrong?

While operating profit increased on a year over year basis and earnings beat expectations, revenue slid 17% on a quarterly basis for Nokia Solution Networks, which accounts for more than 90% of revenue. HERE Maps was not a bright spot either, and there is clearly some work to be done to grow NSN and its patent licensing revenues, which I believe will occur in due time.

From a technical perspective, things are getting ugly for Nokia, and the overall weakness on positive news is screaming $6 in the near term, especially with the uneasiness of the overall market.

Nokia is dropping the curtain and divulging its future moves, as the company releases its earnings and prepares for a conference call to explain its future strategy. Here's what has just been released from an investors standpoint.

Rajeev Suri has been appointed as CEO. Suri led the turnaround at Nokia Solutions Network.

The long awaited dividend is back! Nokia is initiating an annual dividend of $0.15 and a one time special dividend of $0.36 per share. This special dividend falls below some analysts estimates of $0.50+ per share.

The company will also be initiating a $1.73 billion share buy back program.

Let's see how the earnings report is, and how the share price reacts early tomorrow morning. Good luck Nokia longs. I think I'll be holding out for my dividend. Especially now in times when dividend stocks are being eaten up by investors during risky market times.

Capitulation is in its simplest form defined as surrendering, or giving up. Basically throwing in the towel, facing the music. It's the exact opposite of George Costanza's famed, "Going down with the ship," if in fact that ship ever does go down.

If you looked up capitulation in the dictionary earlier today you would have come across the stocktwits Plug Power stream (as bad as that sounds, i'm alright with it). First, the chart.

The most entertaining part of this carnages comes in the form of 140 character or less messages from stocktwits users. Capitulation at its best:

This long term trend line connects mid 2013's action to the early December update rally.


Today may have turned out to be an opportune time too enter a long position in Plug, as many weak holders were hit by capitulation and sold off. Time will tell. I'm still holding onto 50% of my 2013 core position, but added a swing position today.

Plug Power recently dropped the ball on just about every single investor who initiated a long position sometime between early March to just last week by announcing its largest secondary offering ever.
Plug Power sold some 22.6 million shares at $5.50 through the likes of Barclays and Morgan Stanley,while shares were trading north of $6.00. Shares are now trading at $4.89, nearly 60% lower than its recent multi year high of $11.70s.

While shares of Plug have broken down on a technical level (short-mid term perspective), shares are still trading within its long term trend line that was created during the initial breakout in early December of 2013.


While in the red investors and short term traders who got burned feel betrayed by Andy and the company's actions regarding the latest cash infusion, and while I too was surprised by the announcement, Plug Power now has ample cash to tackle what it needs to tackle..."World Domination" as Michael Bigger puts it. A little over the top? Sure, but the fact that Plug is offering a COMPELLING value proposition for large scale customers in the material handling, transportation refrigeration, ground support equipment, range extender, and now telecom markets, I think this money will be put to good use.

Plug already has its road map in front of them, now all they need is the money for gas...and possibly an oil change along the way. And they just got all of that money and then some.

In fact, as a long term investor, and not looking at the stock price, I was giddy during last week business phone update. Plug Power has come so far in such a short period of time. During Novembers business update less than 6 months ago, I was engaged in a few bull/bear arguments with stocktwits users, most notably @callmecrazy, who called Plug Powers impending reverse split a no brainer, and told everyone to run for the hills. Now I can't even look at the stocktwits stream, as it resembles a mix of iHUB and yahoo message board fanatics. Even the chart stream for stocktwits is filled with idiotic pictures of Mortal Kombat fatalities and photoshopped yachts being powered by Plug.

Last weeks update was huge. Plug Power signed up a new auto customer (Volkswagen), announced they will be re-entering the telecom industry via the ReliOn deal, and announced a joint venture with Hyundai to enter the asian markets. Lets not forget the fact that Hyundai is making fuel cell cars, so it makes sense to team up with Hyundais strong R&D division and this can potentially lead to new opportunities for Plug down the road.

Plug Power is a noisy stock, but if you sift through all of that noise and ignore the bashers and promoters who just showed up to the scene, you will realize why names like Morgan Stanley and Barclays are taking roles in this offering. Institutions understand the multiple multi billion dollar markets Plug is targeting and the potential Plug has. The fuel cell industry overall is picking up steam and Plug is positioned at the right place and right time to exploit these massive growth potentials.

Plug has come far off from its March highs, and the momentum names in general have taken a beating, not to mention the overall market seems to be putting in its top, with the right shoulder of H&S in the process of possibly forming, so Plug definitely looks weak from a technical perspective, but now the question is how low can it go before its worth adding more? Plug is trading around old resistance levels of $4.90, so a possible bounce is very likely, but the long term trend line is sitting around $4.68 so that may provide a solid entry point, but if it breaks, hold off until a solid bottom is put in place before buying more.

Currently trading 10% lower than its offering of $5.50, now may be the time to buy when everyone and their mother is screaming SHORT! Blood is in the streets right now for Plug Power, and as volatile and risky as it is, a large deal is rumored to be announced soon (Diageo rumored deal larger than Wal-Marts order) and the company will have ample cash to complete any large orders.

Here's a tidbit I saw earlier today from Business Insider, that estimates fuel cells going mainstream in 2015.

Altex Vision is a computer program that takes into account a number of technical indicators to generate a short term (4-6 weeks) price target of the security in question. This is a basic computer program that generates results and can't catch patterns like the human eye, so it is advised that you take these charts with a grain of salt. Just a frame of reference. More information at Altexvision.com

In the past two days I purchased just under 1,000 shares of TransEnterix...a substantial amount for me. I did this because of the overall story behind TransEnterix (TRXC) which I outline in this article here, and the recent price action and positive developments.

First some background. TRXC was listed on the OTC for some time, and used to trade as SafeStitch Medical (SFES) but changed name after their reverse merger. Shares, which I first bought as SFES at $0.60 last summer, rocketed higher to more than $2.50 after TRXC took the reigns. The company then announced their uplisting to the NYSE, and a 5:1 R/S. At $1.94, shares split, trading at $9.70. They then jumped to $14.00 per share, but was extremely illiquid.

The company was then delayed to entering the NYSE, and then was accepted, and the company announced an offering of $50 million, at $4.00 per share. A 50% haircut from the $8 trading range shares were trading at. This 50% cut is nothing more than a buying opportunity, and given the fact I am extremely long term with this one, and am not considering selling for years to come, I bought more and more and more.

TransEnterix completed a 6 day roadshow meeting with more than 70 analysts/investors across the country, so interest seems to be picking up.

New venture capitalists bought shares in the offering (now 7+ VC groups) and insiders purchased shares. In the past week three analysts came out with a positive buy rating, Stifel, Stern, and Lake Street, giving a price target of $6, $7, and $10. This one is a no brainer at these levels, and lastly, just look at this chart and the massive gap that is waiting to be filled.

This is what technicians love to see, a perfect rounding bottom, or first half of a cup being printed. I've never seen a chart so perfect!

If this is indeed the early stages of a cup and handle, now is the time to buy if you can hold out for about two to three weeks. With support around $2.20, and RSI near support of ~50, this looks like a good swing play. MACD looks like its also priming to turn bullish in the coming days.

I entered a short position in HWAY at around $17.00 in the beginning of the week. I rode that short all the way down to $16.00, didn't cover before earnings announcement (lesson learned), and got stopped out in the first minute of trading today, clearing all of my 6% gains to a gain of zilch. Regardless, lesson learned, and whether a short squeeze was in effect or the earnings were actually super positive, you had to get out of your short position, given the fact that the price broke out of key resistance levels on strong volume. That spells uptrend and we will have to see if the continuation follows through.

I was tipped off by the HWAY short from one of my hometown buddies, a best friend who has by far climbed the tallest ladder to the top among my peers at the ripe age of 23. This man is the smartest I know, and he has served as a healthcare/biotech analyst for several years, with a proven track record. He focuses a lot more on the fundamentals than me, as I like to greatly weigh the technicals, but after going through his short thesis it was compelling, with signals of a downturn coming from their associated business and hints from management as well. HWAY may continue to be a short on lock, and the short price target was set at ~$9.50 for September of 2014. There is still plenty of time for this short to play out.

The technical trend support is at $14, which is where I was planning on trimming the position.
Never blindly follow anyone's calls unless you fully understand the risks! Having said that, I heavily weigh (and respect) my friends thesis, who has worked with the likes of Soros and others and received a degree from top notch business school, and I think this still has time to play out as a compelling short.

But this is a scary chart for anyone still short. The rally seems to be fizzling, maybe now is the prime time to enter short. I have this one with a short entry on watch.

at ~$17.00

Reasons why will be updated soon. Already  gainer 5%, earnings out today, but I think this can be played lower to technical target of $14. Fundamentals say realistic value is $9.00. Either way wait for the earnings to come out and if they're bad i'd enter short.

Reasons why short update coming soon.

I'll be presenting in the finals of the 2014 IC Business Plan Competition tonight with a chance to win $20,000 for 1st place price. Our team will be presenting around 6:15 PM Tonight, and you can watch it live here on this stream! Tune in tonight at 6:15 PM ET. www.livestream.com/icbusiness

Customers are happy, Plug Power is gaining traction among new customers and investors, and all is right in the Plug Power universe. Minus the drastic price manipulation and heavy day trading within the stock, long term shareholders of Plug Power should be thrilled! Day/swing traders or anyone who entered a long position at the top of today's trading session....not so much. Shares of Plug, Ballard, and Fuel Cell all rocketed higher at 10 AM, more than 11% for Plug, which is when the conference call began.

Sell the news right? A mere three minutes later, as Teal was reading the long list of risk statements, Plug Power, along with Ballard and Fuel Cell, tanked, and gave up most of its gains in one minute. This just goes to show how volatile, and risky this stock is. This one is not for the faint of heart!

For the long term holders, Plug Power hit a grand slam with its business update.

#1. New auto customer is VolksWagen, not Ford which many hoped for and I highlighted why the idea existed in this speculative post. Regardless, Volkswagen is a big and reputable name, so what's not to like?

#2. Plug Power signed terms of agreement with the subsidiary of Hyundai, to start up their Asian joint venture. This is big, but long term, as the JV won't be generating revenues until 2015, and the CEO Marsh's response to an analyst regarding the timing painted the picture that it would be late 2015.

#3. Plug Power is back in the telecom business and has once again expanded into another vertical market. The company will be leveraging ReliOns existing customer base to sell telecom products for cell towers, and the opportunity can be large in the years coming. The reason why I'm excited about this is due to Marsh and VP of Business Development Crespo's experience in the telecom industry, and the potential contacts they have to easily sell these units.

Another note is that Plug Power is considering ramping up their sales team which can significantly contribute to the company's revenue in 2015, but increase expenses this year. Seems like a no brainer from the long term perspective.

All in all, looks like a hit out of the park as a long term holder, but I'm anticipating the hype to subdue with Plug Power and with the market screaming caution, it does not hurt to take some profits and trim your position if you're staring at 1000%+ gains. I'm still invested long in Plug and this conference call screams "MultiBillion dollar company" down the line.

The question is how long can Plug Power maintain its lofty valuation? Will the strong growth prospects keep this trading higher or will upcoming Q1 earnings bring people back to reality and result in another drop?

Here's what we have so far, for the much anticipated Plug Power update.

First off, Plug Power has booked $80 million orders to day, which includes 9 GenKey deals. That means Plug Power should be announcing a $30 million GenKey deal today that covers three sites, given that the $50 million Wal-Mart 6 GenKey deal was already announced.

$30 million/3 site deal is not too shabby! But I believe the ultimate factor that decides how high (or low) Plug will go is who the 3 GenKey site deal is with. Is it 3 for the auto manufacturer? Or is it one for the auto manufacturer, and then 2 other sites for different customers?  If a big auto name such as Ford indeed placed a $30 million order, and if that auto name is Ford, I think it will be a big deal.

Marsh will provide an update/strategy overview of the recent purchase of ReliOn. I don't expect anything special here with regards to moving share price. The ReliOn deal will help cut costs, boost margins, and decrease dependence on Ballard Power. The real kicker is if Marsh talks about ReliOns telecom business and how they will now be entering that business.

Marsh will also outline global expansion plans and market diversification. This can be the real  kicker, if Marsh announces a Chinese Joint Venture deal with a reputable partner. The timeline of product sales for GSEs and TRUs may also be divulged in greater detail, as well as progress with the testing of range extenders.

All in all, there will be a lot to digest for the long bulls, and shorts will be eagerly anticipating to pull that trigger. Following the price action will be telling. Looking at the inverted chart on Plug, no clear sell signals have emerged and it point to the stock still going for a run.

Chris Kimble over from KimbleChartingSolutions penned this guest blog post that explains the unbiased technical approach to flipping a chart upside down examining it just like you would any technical chart.

A simple way to invert a chart you'd like to look at, though its not true inverting it, is by heading over to stockcharts and typing ing $ONE:TICKER so for example, Nokia would be $ONE:NOK.

Let's take a look at some charts, and see if its time to buy and sell some of my top holdings, from an unbiased perspective.

Take this with a grain of salt, as this is 100% PURE rumor and speculation.

A nice find came to me via stocktwits earlier this afternoon. The technical support page on Plug Power's website may have given some clues as to who the next customer is for the highly anticipated auto deal announcement, which should be announced by April 21st, the date of the company's upcoming business update (was recently rescheduled from April 17th earlier this morning).

If you take a look at the list of customers on Plug Power's technical support page, an interesting find is "Ford Motor Company-Chicago." Unfortunately, Plug took down this technical support page and now instructs customers to call them if they are having a technical problem. However, there is a cached version available that all can see here:
http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:xA_W2MSx-MgJ:www.plugpower.com/TechnicalSupport.aspx+&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us

Yesterday I received a haircut, and not on my head, in my portfolio. It's times like these where you must slow down, reflect, take a deep breath, and revisit each of your positions. Ask yourself, why did I buy this stock in the first place? And, now that its lower, would I still buy it? In other words, has anything significantly changed to alter my perception on the stock/company in question.

I have been expecting this for some time. With my core portfolio consisting of large positions that grew even larger after a rapid price appreciation from my original purchase, these holdings were bound to drop off at some point, and while it deflated my portfolio by a few percentage points, it's still light years from where I was just a few months ago.

I've been expecting my portfolio to be dragged down with the overall market, which I believe the worst is not yet over. I protected my self through hedging via TVIX, TZA, and BIS, but none of these positions were large enough to offset my haircut, though they did help. Here are some of my recent casualties:

Plug Power sold off at one point more than 10% intraday yesterday due to the strong expectation that news from the company regarding its recent deal with a new auto manufacturer company would be released. Keep in mind that this stock has also somewhat been moving with the market, so it followed the sharp decline and then bounce back of the Nasdaq. Yesterday was a reminder to all longs how quickly things can change for Plug Power (price action wise). Selling my position in Plug has not crossed my mind yet, with so much positive news and catalysts on the horizon.

However, with a recent drop off in momentum leader names, it worries me that Plug may be next. My portfolio is heavily weighted in Plug after experiencing a 1500%+ increase, and any sane portfolio manager would reduce my position immediately. My portfolio is in need of reallocation/reweighting, and for that, my Plug position must be reduced, but I will not do that until after news is dropped regarding Auto, and I'd like to wait it out even longer for the China JV news to be announced. Either way, Plug's recent drop off shows how speculative this stock is, how volatile it is, and how easily the mood swings between the bulls and the bears.

Keep in mind the speculators have been rampant in Plug, with many people looking for a quick buck. A sell off on the news would not take my by surprise.

My April 19th calls have been lost, but keep in mind that options are lotto tickets in my mind, so only put in what you're truly ready to let go of and lose 100%. Plug Power is hugging its trend line nicely. With a conference call scheduled a few days later than originally planned (Now April 21st, originally April 17th), I'll be waiting and all ears until then!


Nokia was off more than 5% in two days because of tensions in Russia and a drop in the Euro. This one remains a hold, and even a possible buy, with the Microsoft/Nokia deal set to close this month. The only risk is India, and South Korea. India presents a risk to Nokia in the sense that it will cost Nokia money to resolve the issue, but it has no impact on the actual closure of the Nokia/Microsoft deal. The real risk is South Korea playing hardball with Nokia and delaying the regulatory approval of the Microsoft deal. This seems like a possibility because it's the home of tech giant Samsung who fears increased licensing rates will be imposed by Nokia. However, since China approved the deal with no patent concessions, it's highly likely that South Korea will follow suit with no complaints.

If Nokia and Microsoft do not close the deal by April, and delay it again until May, i'd expect a hefty drop to the $6 level. Once the deal is closed, i'm expecting an upward move (possibly slow and steady) to double digits, and I will not consider exiting my position until Nokia announces plans of its future strategy and capital distribution. On the chart, it looks like Nokia managed to put in a triple bottom in a short three weeks! Shares are a strong speculative buy in the low $7.00s.
 TransEnterix was the real burn yesterday, as the company announced its secondary offering at $4.00 per share....more than 50% lower than its close the previous day of $8.00. This was a low blow, and as TRXC being quite possibly my favorite position, right up there with Neovasc (NVCIF), I can only say that now is the perfect opportunity to load up. I didn't own enough TRXC to begin with, and was hoping for a sell off so I could get more, but this was more than I was expecting. TRXC is a solid stock with solid management, and here's what the IR firm representing the company had to say about the offering in an e-mail:


Quite generic, but TRXC is getting its story out and as more investors become aware, TRXC will rise in value. The company was just uplisted to the NYSE yesterday. Here is the scary chart that shows 50% of your money going down the drain.

The hype train continues to build for Plug Power and its shareholders, as investors are eagerly awaiting an extended rally in shares once anticipated news regarding Plug Power's recent deal with an international auto manufacturer is announced.

The question is, how much of this piece of information is already baked into the stock price? The company ran nearly 50% in an hour and a half three weeks ago when MarketWatch reported from a direct interview with CEO Andy Marsh that the auto announcement would be made sometime this week.

Now after three solid weeks of digesting, speculating, and waiting, Plug Power is set to discuss in detail its recent auto deal and more during the April 17th business update conference call. With many investors already waiting for the name "Volkswagen" to be dropped, I have a feeling that the induced run up in shares will be lackluster, and compared to other Plug Power rally's, not so strong.

However, if Andy Marsh drops details of an upcoming order about the size of Wal-Mart's recent order, or about its Asian joint venture, we should see shares run hard and possible break out to new highs. Or, if the auto deal entails a large order of 500-1000+ GenDrive units, that could act as a big mover.

Keep in mind that approximately 25%+ of Plug Power's floating shares are sold short, so a short squeeze can also induce a sharp rally even if the auto name is lackluster or already baked into the share price.

This auto news is different in the sense that everyone has been patiently awaiting the announcement for three weeks, knowing its coming. Previous announcements that induced a run up in Plug Power took investors (and traders) by surprise, such as the Wal-Mart order in February or the Fed-Ex DOE range extender news in January.

Regardless of the short term gains to be experienced, and being a long term shareholder, I am eagerly anticipating Thursday's conference call and the details behind Plug Power's continued success. I will be all ears. Until then, just follow the trend!

Plug Power proved to be one of the best performing stocks of the year, gaining four digits in 2013, and already three digits in 2014. Which company is next to go on a tear like Plug? To find out, you're best off looking for similar highly distressed situations. One of those distressed situations is American Apparel, and the clothing company shares a few similarities with Plug Power.

The most notable similarity is the investors involved with both companies. Michael Bigger of Bigger Capital has extensively written about Plug Power over the summer of 2013, pointing many to the company when it was trading below $0.50. Now Mr. Bigger has his sights on American Apparel after the company recently avoided bankruptcy.

Another investor, Minho Roth of a Zurich based fund recently took a 13% stake in American Apparel. Roth also took a 5% stake in Plug Power back in 2012. Roth and his recent investment in American Apparel is highlighted in this recent Bloomberg article. Here are some highlights.

Roth, who co-founded FiveT in 2006 and serves as its CEO, joins a long line of investors who have been captivated by Charney and American Apparel’s potential. It’s a list that includes billionaire Ron Burkle and Lyndon Lea, co-founder of hedge fund Lion Capital LLP.

Roth, who declined to say how much money his firm manages, had been following American Apparel for about four years and saw a worthy investment. As the shares sank below $1 this year, he became even more interested.

Then he received an unsolicited pitch for the latest stock offering. In the middle of March, he flew to California to see the distribution center and quiz executives, although he didn’t meet the 45-year-old Charney. The visit convinced him that the chain had fixed its logistics, priming it for a turnaround.

“We can’t believe how cheap it is,” Roth said. Especially since “it’s a lot further in the restructuring process than people think.”

“It was a similar situation” to American Apparel, Roth said. Both companies (Plug Power) “shouldn’t have traded that low.”

Now, let's take a quick look at the charts. This chart of both Plug Power and American Apparel was sent to me over the weekend.

Take a look at FCEL and BLDP.

No, not GAP the clothing store, a gap in the chart for American Apparel. Here's the daily.

Also, look at the MACD. Convergence has occurred and it's finally reversing. Looks like APP can easily retrace back to the high $0.50's or low $0.60s if the market can hold up.

On the weekly, there's nothing to write home about, besides a spike in volume and a doji, which can signal a reversal in trend is around the corner.

I recently added a significant amount of APP to my portfolio, here's why.