The Wall Street Fox

Nokia, technically speaking, seems to be priming for an upward move to $9.00+. Take a look at the chart.


Nokia is up 3.6% on high volume after an analyst upgrade from Jefferies.

If shares can break through the short term downward trend on high volume, and then past $8.20 resistance, I believe double digits would not be far off.

Remember, Nokia has been trading range bound in a rectangular box range for about 8 months! A break above (or below) this rectangular box would signal a sharp move either way.

The hype and commentary and articles surrounding Plug Power are spewing out at an uncontrollable rate, kind of like when the ents break the dam. Often this commentary surrounding Plug Power is negative, due to the fact that shares rocketed more than 4,000% higher after narrowly avoiding bankruptcy, then avoiding a reverse split, and then announcing a positive EBITDAS 2014 year, a DOE contract for range extender testing with FedEx, and a massive turn key order from Wal-Mart.

The arguments of whether this stock price move has been warranted has already reached the point of nausea months ago, and regardless of the current stock price, the fact is Plug Power is moving quickly to capitalize on its tremendous growth opportunities. The company has more than $150 million in the bank, will be deploying new products (GSEs and TRUs) this year, and today the COO signaled that Wal-Mart will be a future customer of their TRU offering (Wal-Mart operates more than 5,000 of them alone, and the possible logistic savings are through the roof for such an efficient driven company).

Plug Power is still up nearly 1500% in a year, not bad for a company that was staring down the barrel of bankruptcy and on the verge of selling itself in early 2013. 


I have recently been going through some old conference call material of Plug Power, to get an idea of what Plug Power looked like back in the future. While this post highlighted some of the woes of 2012/2013 (Possible sale of company, CFO resigned, product quality issues, disruption in infrastructure services, pricing pressures from Ballard Power).

Here are some other tidbits i've come across thanks to a long time Plug Power investor, such as a 2009 Investor Presentation, and I thought there were some slides worth highlighting too all who are unfamiliar with Plug pre 2013/2014.
A Bright future is in store for Plug Power, but that's not saying the road will not be a bumpy one. The company has strong growth prospects, but the bears continue to short and many still feel the run up in shares is overdone. Earnings will do the talking, and i'm alright with that as i'm a long investor in Plug Power.

I'm long Plug Power.

These quotes are from the 2012 Q4 earnings conference call held in March of 2013.

These (new) customers chose GenDrive after visiting and talking with many of our present customers, visiting deployments and becoming convinced that a GenDrive powering a forklift truck will improve productivity, eliminate the battery room and reduce their greenhouse gases.

And after the most recent expense reduction in the fourth quarter which reduced the annual run rate by approximately USD 3 million, the company will be EBITDA breakeven between $65 million to $75 million in revenue.

We are the premiere system PEM fuel cell integrator without question. Forklift trucks are a more demanding application than even automobiles. In 2 years, we put as many hours on our fuel cells as fuel cells powering automobiles will see in the lifetime of the car. We constantly start and stop and carry and lift up over 6,000 pounds of weight and operate close to 99% of the time. 

Our products are fueled over 6,500x per day and use 4.5 metric tons of hydrogen per day. 95% of the commercially-used hydrogen fuel in the U.S. is filled into a Plug Power product. No one is remotely matching the performance of Plug Power's products in real-life operations. Our technology and operation knowledge uniquely positions Plug Power for the future.

Phil, until I resolve the capital issues for the company, I'm going to decline at this point. We're, as you could see on the call -- see on our press release, we have been focusing on strategic investments, raising additional capital, partnerships and potentially selling the company, and our focus is to resolve our capital issues. And we believe once those capital issues are resolved, order flow will significantly increase.

Hans Peter Black - Interinvest Corp., Inc.Yes. It's actually Hans Black. Listen, I have a little suggestion, and that is, you got to release before market or after. I think you should try to release your numbers 8 in the morning or something and not 15 minutes before a call while markets are open. But that's just a little thought.
Andrew J. Marsh - Chief Executive Officer, President and DirectorSo Hans, just so you know, we had it loaded at 7:00. NASDAQ had some questions and it delayed the release.
Hans Peter Black - Interinvest Corp., Inc.All right. Fair enough. Well, look, I'm listening and you know my views, I think we've made them very clear, and we're there to help. I'm a very big believer in your technology and the future of this company. And I think we've stated publicly some of the changes we'd like to see. And I wish you luck and good hunting. ( I thought this was funny)

I recently obtained a 2009 Plug Power investor presentation from an acquaintance. I will post any tidbits as well soon. Plug Power has come a long way.

I'm not a licensed financial advisor, nor am I a licensed Registered Investment Advisor (RIA). I hold no fancy three letter combination after my name (as of yet), and my own investing/trading experience (2-3 years) is probably dwarfed by your own. My name is Matthew Fox and I'm simply an avid stock market observer/investor, crazed technical analyst (I LOVE CHARTS!),  and serial entrepreneur (if one of em' will just take off already!).

I will have one fancy three letter combination after my name, MBA, from a not top tier Business School on June 26th, 2014, and I am a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) hopeful and plan to earn that designation in the future, though it's a 1.5 year testing process and requires three years of relevant work experience (of which I have zero financial work related experience! I've been cooking at fine dining establishments for nearly 7 years), so it will be a while until I earn that designation.

I'm laying this all out for you before I explain my investments that literally get me GIDDY and EXCITED for just being apart of, because I want you to take what I have to say with a grain of salt (and then some). You can read much more higher quality/intellectual commentary on stocks/market from a lot more experienced veterans/bloggers in the industry that will probably make/save you a lot more money than The Wall Street Fox.

If you've made it this far, here is why I'M SHOUTING FROM THE HILLTOPS: Go Long (AKA invest, AKA more than a year time frame!) in TransEnterix (TRXC), Neovasc (NVCIF), American Apparel (APP), and more.

TransEnterix (TRXC)

Did you ever wish you could jump in a time machine, go back to the early 2000's and put all of your money into Intuitive Surgical (ISRG)? ISRG went from under $10 to $600+ in a decade.  Well, now you can...sort of! TransEnterix is developing the next generation surgical robot that blows Intuitive Surgical's Da Vinci System out of the water. TransEnterix has superb management, a boatload of cash to fully develop and commercialize its product which is being released in 2015 and the company is targeting a massive market that has yet to be significantly penetrated.

TransEnterix is developing the SurgiBot. It's a surgical robot aimed towards laparscopic surgery. The surgeon enters the patients body through the belly button in ONE incision about the size of a quarter (25mm), and the flexibility of the device, and tactile feedback are what sets this device apart from Intuitive. Furthermore, TransEnterix's offering will cost 60% less than ISRG's Da Vinci System, at ~$500,000. The SurgiBot will also be creating recurring revenue from annual service contracts with customers and supplying the reusable instruments (~$1,200 per procedure). A more in-depth fundamental analysis of TRXC can be found here and here.

• Plug Power (PLUG) Here, here, here, here, here, here, here, and here. (HAHA!)
• Erba Diagnostics (ERB) Here and here.
• Castle Brands (ROX) Here, here and here.
• Tiger Media (IDI) Here and here.

Plug Power released news this morning of receiving a 182 GenDrive order from Central Grocers. Central Grocers first committed to Plug Power back in 2009, and there fleet of more than 100 units has clocked in more than 2 million hours of use! Talk about reliability. The quality of production going on at Plug Power is second to none, and I can vouch for that, having taken a tour of Plug Power  in March of 2014 which you can read about here and here.

The units will be in use at central grocers in the third quarter of 2014, so this shows that Plug is really speeding up production and will have the ability to shorten its sales cycle over time, as clearly shown by this announcement.

Central Grocer's commitment to Plug Power's GenDrive offering highlights a key point I think many investors don't realize. While Plug will be obtaining recurring revenue from the GenKey product offering, providing the hydrogen and infrastructure (usually a 5 year contract), there is also the fact that GenDrive units DON'T LAST FOREVER. The senior production manager at Plug Power informed me during the tour of their state of the art production facilities that the GenDrive units on average last about 5 years (GenDrive's that run around the clock at 24/7 distribution centers last around 3 years, not as much usage lasts 6 years. Again these are high quality products).

What does that mean? Expect Wal-Mart to replace their single 1700+ unit order come 2019 or so. But even more so, expect Plug Power to receive a number of recomitment orders from companies that purchased their GenDrive units back in 2009.

Customers who purchased GenDrive units from Plug Power back in 2009 include:

Nestle
Coca-Cola
Whole Foods
Mercedes Benz
Wegmans
Sysco

While some of these orders were small test units (around 40 units), others were for more than 100.

I wouldn't be surprised if we see some repeat customers knocking on Plug Power's door soon.

Shares of Plug are 8% in pre-market trading, 20 minutes after the announcement was made. Keep in mind a large chunk of Plug shares are sold short, so a volatile ride may be instore for Plug Power investors over the coming days, especially with earnings next week.


From the Press Release:

"This is a success story for Plug Power, as nothing validates our solution better than a satisfied customer who orders more," said Andy Marsh, CEO at Plug Power. "Central Grocers was an early adopter that has been reaping the benefits of GenDrive fuel cell solutions, and will now see additional benefits through our GenCare services."

"Hydrogen fuel cells run longer and maintain consistent power as they operate and are refueled more quickly than batteries," said Ken Nameth of Central Grocers. "Our operators are pleased with the lift trucks powered by GenDrive, and management has been impressed by the high levels of productivity within our facility."

These four words, "This Time Its Different" is an investors worst nightmare, as famously stated by Sir John Templeton. Thinking a different outcome will occur with no changes to the situation is a foolish thought.

This thought has been highlighted by many investors throughout the past month, as the market begins to top and indicators point to an imminent sell off. Chris Kimble continues to hit the nail on the head:


An overall market downturn will most likely continue the depression of high momentum flyers such as Plug. But for Plug Power specifically, this time it's different.

This chart shows the run up Plug experienced back in 2011 after a small order from Coca-Cola and KC induced bullish behavior. Here's why it's different for Plug Power this time around.

• Plug Power has set up a fully operating joint venture in Europe with Air Liquide, which they plan on taking full majority control of in the coming years.
• Plug Power is in the midst of setting up a joint venture with Hyundai Hysco in South Korea. 
• Plug Power recieved a massive order from Wal-Mart of 1700+ units at 6 distribution centers. The deal is expected to grow in size as it was designed to allow Wal-Mart to easily add more DC's to the deal. Wal-Mart has 150+ DC's in North America alone.
• Kroger has become a driving force for Plug and is committed to expanding their use of Plug Power's GenDrive units. 
• Plug Power is now back in the Telecom space with two industry veterans steering the ship, CEO Andy Marsh, and VP of Business Development Jose Luis Crespo. This was not a coincidence, Plug Power can re-enter the telecom space with strong contacts/relationships waiting to be leveraged.
• Plug Power acquired ReliOn and will be manufacturing its own fuel cell stacks in 2014, which will reduce costs and dependence on Ballard Power.
• Plug Power has more than $150 million cash in the bank to exploit vertical markets.
• Plug Power partnered with FedEx to develop range extenders for electric powered utility trucks.
• Plug Power will commence sales of its Ground Support Equipment GenDrive units in 2014 with FedEx as a first customer.
• Plug Power has introduced its turnkey GenKey solution, providing the hydrogen, infrastructure, and installation of hydrogen fueling stations. This recurring revenue stream will grow as Plug Power continues to scale up.
• Plug Power signed up a new customer, VolksWagen, just confirming the true value behind Plug Power's product offering. 
• The Fuel Cell industry in general is building traction as it becomes ECONOMICALLY FEASIBLE to implement this technology. 
• Plug Power will produce a profitable EBITDA in 2014....for the FIRST TIME EVER.

Another day on the stocktwits stream, and the capitulation of Plug Power continues, as investors and traders throw in the towel and jump off the ship. With the $3.91 gap filled (highlighted here), and support levels near $3.75, and next level at $3.40 level, it seems that the bottom is forming for Plug Power.

No charts for this one, just some great Stocktwits post that sum up the capitulation quite well:

I have been in and out of Imris Inc. (IMRS) since December of 2013. I first wrote about the company when it was trading near all time lows of $1.30, and recommended it as a buy at those levels, outlined here in this free pro report. Since then, the stock made a massive run to more than $2.50, thanks to some positive PRs, interest from the trader SuperMan and his followers, and an increasing backlog.

Take a look at the chart now and we are back to square one, once again sitting near all time lows.



Q4 Earnings did not impress, inducing a massive selloff (and the biotech breakdown hasn't helped either) but the stock remains oversold. I re-initiated my position in IMRS yesterday at $1.22, and I believe the gap around $2.20 is just waiting to be filled. I'm planning my exit around the $2.00 range, implying a return of 60%+.

RSI is bouncing off of oversold levels, and MACD is priming to turn bullish.



It will be months (in my opinion) before the gap to $2.40 range is filled, but at these levels, I believe IMRS provides a compelling risk/reward profile. Strong support is situated near $1.19. Though I have no physical stop in place, my mental one is around $1.15 and thats where i'd cut my losses.

Imris sells surgical theaters to hospitals with a focus on intra-operative MRIs for brain surgery. The value proposition is this: Imris's state of the art surgical theaters allow a surgeon to conduct brain surgery with the purpose of removing a brain tumor, and then scanning the brain via MRI in the middle of surgery, allowing the surgeon to check if they did in fact remove 100% of the brain tumor.

Without this technology, tradition brain surgery works like this: open up brain, take out tumor as much as possible, sew patient back up, and then a few days later conduct an MRI to see if all of the tumor is gone. Surgeons usually get 80%-90% of the tumor and will need to conduct surgery for a second time to get the remaining 10% out. Imris's surgical theaters allow the surgeon to conduct the MRI in the middle of surgery to ensure that 100% of the tumor is removed during the one operation. This saves time and money and pain for the patient, hospital, and surgeon.

Aside from the extremely bullish fundamentals, Plug Power has some technical considerations. The most clear issue being a tiny gap that seems to be waiting to be filled. It feels like a magnet. This gap is at the $3.91 level, created after the Wal-Mart order jump in late February.

Looks like Plug Power is setting up for a make or break moment this coming earnings release. With the the $150+ million in the bank, i'm expecting some clear vision moving forward with what to do with all that money. While earnings numbers may no thrill many Q1 2014 (expected to be lower than $5.5 million according to management), an announcement regarding a signed contract or acquisition can move the stock big....when its least expected. This has the potential to trigger a short squeeze, which could be astronomical given the fact that Plug Power has nearly 30% of its shares sold short.

I remain long Plug Power.

Never try to catch a falling knife. That's one of the top rules of trading/investing. No matter how far a stock has dropped, theres no telling whether it will continue to drop. I have tried to catch falling knifes multiple times, and my success rate has been dismal.

After selling ~40% of my core long PLUG position (initiated during the summer of 2013) at the $7.50 level, I have started to re accumulate shares, attempting once again to catch a falling knife. While I will most definitely get burned (already slightly burned, bought at $4.62), here's why I purchased more shares of Plug Power:

I reviewed a lot of the recent fundamental developments, i.e.

#1 reason: Blood is in the streets. Buy when others are fearful, and based off of social market $Plug commentary....everyone and their mother is fearful about this high flyer.

• Plug Power now has $150+ million in the bank to help fund growth opportunities and keep up with the booming demand for their products

• Plug Power signed up Volkswagen as a new customer

• Plug Power will be entering the Asian market via Hyundai Hysco joint venture

• Plug Power re-entered the telecom industry, one more to add to the list of vertical markets. Don't forget that Marsh and Crespo have EXTENSIVE experience and relationships within the telecom industry. I expect the two to heavily exploit these contacts.

• Plug Power has another GenKey deal in the works with details that have yet to be disclosed. Possibility this may be the rumored (100% Speculation!) Diageo deal that was leaked by the same source who leaked the VolksWagen deal. The same source says this Diageo deal has the potential to be larger than the multi-site 1700 unit Wal-Mart order (Again, 100% Speculation).

• Plug Power is trading at a heavy discount relative to its recent secondary offering at $5.50 transaction price

BONE looks like it's setting up for a nice run. It seems primed as potential swing position. I have zero knowledge/background info of this medical company other than the fact that they have earnings coming out on Tuesday, so that's a risk to consider, but considering the upside move, if earnings impress this one can rocket.

The technicals caught my eye, as well as the perked up messaging and bullish sentiment on StockTwits.






                                                                                                               











And here are the charts.


Notice the ascending triangle, with resistance sitting around $0.71. A break with volume can send a retract to at least $0.90.

On the daily, a golden cross occurred in early March, and the price action is teetering right on the 50 day moving average, around $0.72. A close above that 50 day would be bullish and signal a possible entry.

The MACD is turning bullish, with a cross in the making, and the RSI is perking up and has room to run.

Altex Vision is a computer program that takes into account a number of technical indicators to generate a short term (4-6 weeks) price target of the security in question. This is a basic computer program that generates results and can't catch patterns like the human eye, so it is advised that you take these charts with a grain of salt. Just a frame of reference. More information at Altexvision.com